Former President Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) and current President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will dispute the runoff for Brazil’s presidency on October 30 after a surprisingly tight result. In yesterday’s first round, Lula won 48.43% of votes while President Bolsonaro won 43.20%. Lula won 57 million votes in 14 states, mostly in his electoral stronghold in the north and northeast of Brazil, while Bolsonaro won over 51 million votes in 12 states and the Federal District, mostly in the mid-west, south and southeast. It is important to emphasize that the main research institutes did not, for the most part, reflect the results of the elections in the federal and state spheres.
Compared to the first round in 2018, Lula obtained 25.6 million more votes than Fernando Haddad (PT) did, who now disputes the runoff for the state of São Paulo. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, gained 1.7 million more votes than he did on the first round four years ago against Haddad.
This will be the first time since Brazil’s redemocratization that the second round will be disputed by two former presidents. Lula, who governed for two terms between 2003 and 2010, and Bolsonaro, who has been president since 2019 and seeks a second term, are protagonists of the political polarization that has expanded in recent years.
According to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), almost 30 million Brazilians did not make it to polls, although voting is mandatory for citizens over 18 and under 70 years of age. Out of 123.7 million votes, almost 3.5 million were null and 2 million blanks. Lula and Bolsonaro will strive to convince these voters while also trying to garner almost 10 million votes won by so-called “third way” contenders, like Simone Tebet, Ciro Gomes and others.
Lula explores the social and economic legacy of his two terms as a president and also the way he was able to build a favorable scenario alongside running mate and former nemesis Geraldo Alckmin with several dinners held to dialogue with the business community. President Bolsonaro, naturally, explores rewards of the increase in his social aid, Auxílio Brasil, stronger GDP, lower inflation and unemployment.
While Lula has not given details about his cabinet composition – which makes markets apprehensive – not winning the first round might lead him to make more moderate, market-friendly concessions to convince the electorate in this final stretch.
Governability
In 2023, President Bolsonaro’s party, the PL, will have the largest caucus in the House of Representatives, with a projection of 100 representatives, while Lula’s Workers’ Party projects 80 representatives. Out of the 27 elected Senators (1/3 of the Upper House), 16 are Bolsonaro allies, eight are Lula’s and three are independent.
President Bolsonaro showed strength and was able to attract votes for allies in the Legislative branch. Eight former ministers of the Bolsonaro administration won Congress seats. Five of them for the Senate: Vice-President Hamilton Mourão for the state of Rio Grande do Sul; Damares Alves (Human Rights) in the Federal District; Marcos Pontes (Science & Technology) in São Paulo; Rogério Marinho (Regional Development), in Rio Grande do Norte; Tereza Cristina (Agriculture) in Mato Grosso do Sul, a state driven by agribusiness. Sergio Moro, former Minister of Justice who broke with the administration in 2020, won in Paraná. Two former ministers won seats in the House of Representatives: controversial Ricardo Salles (Environment) for São Paulo and Eduardo Pazuello (Health) in Rio de Janeiro.
Two other cabinet members of the Bolsonaro administration will dispute runoffs for state governments: Tarcísio de Freitas (Infrastructure), in São Paulo, the country’s largest electoral college and the richest state in the federation, which mirrors the federal dispute between a Bolsonaro ally and Workers’ Party member Fernando Haddad. In Rio Grande do Sul, Onyx Lorenzoni (minister of four different cabinets, Labor and Pensions last) disputes the state government with Eduardo Leite of the PSDB, a party that became weakened after these elections.
In the first round in state governments, President Bolsonaro’s allies won in eight states while Lula’s won in four. In the states where there will be a runoff for governors, Lula and Bolsonaro each gather the support of six candidates who led polls last Sunday.
Overall, Senate results bolsters conservative agendas, and the House is very much aligned with President Bolsonaro. If reelected, he becomes stronger in Congress. On the other hand, if Lula wins, he will have a harder time passing his agendas with substantial opposition.
However, Brazil’s so-called Congressional big center (Centrão) maintains its prominence and articulation with these parties remains essential for governability. Projections show that this group made up of five parties that usually go with the flow of whoever rules the Executive branch has elected 241 federal representatives – vital for obtaining a majority in the lower house made up of 513 lawmakers.
