The 2024 municipal elections, held on October 6 in Brazil, brought about a significant reshaping of the political landscape, consolidating the dominance of center and center-right parties and highlighting a strong trend of administrative continuity. The re-election rate reached 82%, the highest since 2000. In the 100 municipalities that received the most parliamentary amendments – budgetary allocations – between 2021 and 2024, this rate reached 98%. Mayors with privileged access to amendment resources largely managed to stay in power, reinforcing the importance of these funds in the local political scenario. Does your organization understand how this continuity of local power may influence your business in the coming years?

For the business sector, this continuity in municipal administrations brings predictability, with re-elected mayors maintaining familiarity with local demands, which can facilitate public-private partnerships and other initiatives. The sustained use of parliamentary amendments as a competitive advantage suggests that this same pattern may repeat itself in the 2026 federal elections when lawmakers seek re-election using the same resource allocation strategy.

In the overall results, 15 state capitals will have a runoff for mayoral elections, while 11 capitals resolved the election in the first round. Of the 103 municipalities with over 200,000 voters and the possibility of a runoff, 52 will return to the polls on October 27. The so-called big-center (Centrão) was the big winner, boosted by a robust federal budget of R$ 60 billion (around US$ 12 billion). Is your organization paying attention to the local dynamics of city halls that could directly impact your operations?

The PSD party, led by Gilberto Kassab, overtook the MDB and now controls 877 municipalities. This advance consolidates the PSD as a relevant political force for 2026. The MDB, in turn, elected 844 mayors, an increase from 2020 (793). Valdemar Costa Neto’s PL won in two capitals in the first round (Maceió and Rio Branco) and will compete in the runoffs in nine capitals. Meanwhile, the President Lula’s PT failed to secure direct victories and enters the runoffs at a disadvantage, contesting four capitals. However, the party secured strategic alliances in Rio de Janeiro, with Eduardo Paes (PSD), and in Recife, with João Campos (PSB), both re-elected. In São Paulo, the race between Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) confirmed the results predicted by the polls.

The polarization between Bolsonaro followers and the Lula’s Workers’ Party, which dominated the 2022 elections, is losing strength in the municipal scenario, and new political configurations are emerging. This was even mentioned in the victory speeches of Paes and Campos, who called for less polarized debates, as did Kassab.

With the second round still ahead, the scenario remains dynamic. However, one thing is clear: the 2024 elections consolidated the power of center-right parties and reinforced the role of parliamentary amendments in local politics, which will impact the business environment in the coming years.

Is your company positioned to navigate this context effectively and seize the opportunities that will arise?

Eduarda Negri, our Head of Institutional and Governmental Relations, is available to present our solutions. Please contact: eduarda.negri@diblasi.com.br